Trade and Market Update, April 6, 2026

U.S. MARKETS

LONG TERM INDICATORS

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in a Bull status at 47.45, Up 0.86 in value from the prior week. It has signaled Bull since June 27, 2025.

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Bond Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in BULL status at 60.47, Up 0.94 in value from the prior week. It has signaled Bull since December 15, 2023.

SHORT TERM INDICATORS

GALACTIC SHIELD — Positive for Q1 2026: This indicator is based on the combination of U.S. and International Equities trend statuses at the start of each quarter.

STARFLUX— Negative: Starflux ended the week at -5.78 (Up 3.47 in value last week). This short-term indicator measures U.S. Equities. It measures the trend-strength of the Russell 3000 index.

STARPATH — Negative: This indicator measures the interplay on dual timeframes of our Type 1s + the Russell 3000 + our four most ‘pro-cyclical’ Type 3s, vs. Cash.

U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW

THE VOLATILIY INDEX for 2026 (VIX)

VIX closed at 23.87 this week, a  23.1% decrease vs last week’s close of 31.05.

U.S. MARKET NEWS

Mixed Economic data:

Labor market data delivered a mixed picture, as ADP reported that private employers added 62,000 jobs in March—slightly below February’s revised 66,000 but above expectations—while initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 202,000, beating forecasts; however, continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million. Meanwhile, Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed labor demand softening, with job openings declining to 6.9 million in February from 7.2 million in January and hiring dropping to its lowest level since 2020. Outside the labor market, consumer confidence ticked higher for a second straight month in March, with the Conference Board’s index rising 0.8 points to 91.8 as improved views of current conditions offset weaker future expectations, though the broader trend remains downward since 2021. U.S. manufacturing activity also showed modest strength, expanding for a third consecutive month as the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.7, supported by gains in new orders and production, although employment continued to contract and price pressures climbed to their highest level since June 2022.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS

Europe

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 3.92% for the week in local currency terms, with sentiment boosted by hopes that the Middle East conflict may prove shorter than initially feared, while major indexes including Germany’s DAX (+3.89%), Italy’s FTSE MIB (+5.18%), France’s CAC 40 (+3.38%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (+4.70%) all

posted strong gains ahead of Good Friday market closures. Meanwhile, rising energy costs drove eurozone inflation higher, with the annual rate increasing to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—the highest since January 2025—as energy prices surged 4.9%, even as inflation eased across services, industrial goods, and food-related categories. In Germany, economic prospects weakened as leading institutes, including the Ifo Institute, downgraded the country’s 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.6%, citing the negative impact of the energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict.

Japan

Japan’s stock markets declined this week, with the Nikkei 225 falling 0.47%, as initial midweek optimism over potential geopolitical de-escalation gave way to sharp losses after President Donald Trump signaled a possible escalation of U.S. military action in Iran and offered no clear timeline for ending the conflict, while uncertainty around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in Brent crude prices further pressured sentiment given Japan’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil. Amid the turmoil, investors increasingly anticipated a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its April meeting, driven in part by inflation concerns tied to rising energy costs, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing close monitoring of yen movements; meanwhile, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.39% from 2.34%, and the yen strengthened to around 159.3 per U.S. dollar from 160.3, supported by comments from currency official Atsushi Mimura suggesting readiness to act against speculative market activity, fueling expectations of possible intervention to support the currency.

China

Mainland Chinese stock markets were mixed as investors weighed improving domestic activity against ongoing external risks, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.86%; mainland markets remain open Friday before closing Monday for the Qingming Festival, and Hong Kong markets will be closed from Friday through Tuesday for Easter and local holidays. Meanwhile, March PMI data showed a broad-based rebound across both official and private surveys, with the official Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.4—its strongest reading in a year—after two months of contraction, the nonmanufacturing PMI increasing to 50.1 from 49.5, and the S&P Global–compiled China General Manufacturing PMI expanding for a fourth consecutive month to 50.8, signaling strengthening momentum across both state-owned and private export-oriented firms; however, rising input costs across surveys suggest the recovery remains uneven and increasingly cost-driven, posing risks to profit margins.

HIGHLIGHTED STORY

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/half-of-u-s-exports-come-from-6-states/

April 02, 2026

Key Insights:

America’s export economy is far more concentrated than one would expect. In 2025, just six states—Texas, California, New York, Louisiana, Illinois, and Florida—accounted for over half of all U.S. exports. Together, they generated roughly $1 trillion in trade, out of a $2.1 trillion total. Texas stands far above the rest. The state alone makes up 21.8% of U.S. exports, meaning more than one in every five export dollars originate there. Using the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, this chart shows how export activity is heavily concentrated across a small group of states, with most contributing only a fraction of the total.

Texas Exports More Than Entire Countries

With $450 billion in goods exports in 2025, Texas surpasses major global economies, including India ($445 billion) and Russia ($419 billion). Despite a slight 1% annual decline, Texas exports have surged 81% over the past decade, driven largely by energy and industrial output. This highlights how a single U.S. state plays an outsized role not just nationally, but globally. The table above shows how Texas’s scale of exports compares to the rest of America: Louisiana is another standout, known for its massive LNG industry. While it accounts for just 1.1% of U.S. GDP, it generates 4.5% of total exports, exceeding Florida, despite having a population nearly five times smaller. This imbalance underscores the importance of energy hubs in driving U.S. trade. California, meanwhile, contributes 9.1% of exports ($188.4 billion), with Washington (3.2%) and Arizona (2.2%) also playing key roles across the West.

Most States Contribute Very Little

Beyond the top exporters, there’s a steep drop-off. A total of 27 states each account for less than 1% of U.S. exports, with many contributing just a fraction of that. Smaller states like South Dakota, Wyoming, and Vermont each generate roughly 0.1% of exports, reflecting both their size and limited industrial base. This level of concentration reveals how dependent U.S. trade is on a small number of states, particularly energy and manufacturing hubs. While this concentration can drive efficiency, it also creates vulnerabilities. Economic shocks, policy changes, or disruptions in just a few regions could have an outsized impact on the entire U.S. export economy.

Best regards,

Cliff M. Robello, CFP®, ChFC Sheri Cabral, President

CMR Financial Advisors | (808) 537-2912

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