The Market Update – October 6, 2025

U.S. MARKETS

LONG TERM INDICATORS

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in a Bull status at 74.63, up 1.91% from the prior week’s 73.23. It has signaled Bull since June 27, 2025.

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Bond Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in BULL status at 65.40, up 1.36% from the prior week’s 64.52. It has signaled Bull since December 15, 2023.

SHORT TERM INDICATORS

GALACTIC SHIELD — Positive for Q4 2025: This indicator is based on the combination of U.S. and International Equities trend statuses at the start of each quarter.

STARFLUX— Positive: Starflux ended the week at 7.18 (Down 0.28% last week) This short-term indicator measures U.S. Equities.

STARPATH — Positive: This indicator measures the interplay on dual timeframes of our Type 1s + the Russell 3000 + our four most ‘pro-cyclical’ Type 3s, vs. Cash.

U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW

THE VOLATILIY INDEX for 2025 (VIX)

VIX closed at 16.65 this week, an 8.9% increase vs last week’s close of 15.29.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

U.S. MARKET NEWS

Government data delayed:

With the U.S. government shutdown halting the release of key economic data, investors turned their attention to alternative labor indicators after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September nonfarm payrolls report was postponed. The shutdown, which has furloughed about 750,000 federal workers according to the Congressional Budget Office, also threatens to delay other key reports such as the September consumer price index (CPI) due October 15—potentially clouding the outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve’s late-October policy meeting. In the absence of official data, markets focused on ADP’s September report showing a loss of 32,000 jobs versus expectations for a 51,000 gain, reinforcing expectations for upcoming Fed rate cuts. However, Fed officials maintained a somewhat hawkish tone, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warning that a CPI delay would be “problematic” amid persistent services inflation, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she favored a slower pace of policy normalization.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS

Europe

In local currency terms, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index rose 2.87% to record highs, lifted by a rally in technology stocks and optimism that U.S. borrowing costs may decline this month. Major European indexes also advanced, with Germany’s DAX gaining 2.69%, France’s CAC 40 up 2.68%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rising 1.43%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 adding 2.22%. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.2% in September from 2.0% in August, driven by higher services costs and a slower decline in energy prices, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at a Bank of Finland conference that inflation risks appeared “quite contained” and that with policy rates at 2%, the ECB was well positioned to respond to any shifts or new shocks. Meanwhile, the eurozone unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% in August from July’s record low of 6.2%, though consumer confidence improved to -14.9 from -15.5, signaling stronger intentions for major purchases in the year ahead.

Japan

Japan’s stock markets delivered mixed results for the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index rising 0.91% while the broader TOPIX Index fell 1.82%, as technology shares advanced on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence investments. Despite lingering uncertainty over the outcome of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election scheduled for October 4, the yen strengthened to around JPY 147.3 per U.S. dollar from roughly JPY 149.5 the previous week, supported by a weaker greenback following the U.S. government shutdown.

 

China

Mainland Chinese stock markets rose during a holiday-shortened week, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index both advancing through Tuesday, September 30, before closing from October 1 to 8 for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. In Hong Kong, where markets were closed Wednesday for National Day, the Hang Seng Index gained 3.88%, according to FactSet. The eight-day Golden Week holiday typically drives a surge in consumer spending as millions travel, shop, and dine out—activity expected to lift domestic consumption-related stocks such as liquor makers and airlines. Analysts closely watch Golden Week sales data as a barometer of consumer strength and progress in China’s economic rebalancing toward services and consumption. On the economic front, China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, while the nonmanufacturing PMI slipped to 50 from 50.3. Although manufacturing activity slightly outperformed expectations, both readings suggested continued economic softness into the third quarter after robust growth in the first half of the year.

HIGHLIGHTED STORY

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/americas-fastest-rising-and-falling-housing-markets/

October 2, 2025

Key Insights:

In 2025, housing demand is shifting toward the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S., while softening across the South. Interestingly, this marks a reversal from pandemic-era patterns. In the South, housing inventory has risen 3.6% above pre-pandemic levels, driven by a wave of homebuilding activity. By contrast, the Northeast has seen inventory plunge 51%, fueling price growth. This graphic shows where home prices are rising and falling the fastest in America, based on data from Home Economics.

Given their relative affordability and proximity to major cities, markets in the Northeast—particularly in New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey—have seen double-digit increases. Ranking first overall is Rochester, NY, rising 31%, where the median home price is just $286,000. Following next in line is Hartford, CT with 29% price gains, as out-of-state buyers have flocked to the market.

While home prices in Austin boomed over the pandemic, they are now down 12% in three years. During the pandemic, home construction surged in Texas and Florida. But now, many of those homes sit empty. In Cape Coral, FL, sellers are cutting prices to attract buyers in a sluggish market. Out West, Oakland is the only metro among the top 10 for home price declines, with values falling 3% since August 2022. Even so, median prices remain high at $906,000—driven by the city’s relative affordability compared to San Francisco.

Best Regards,

Cliff M. Robello, CFP®, ChFC

Sheri Cabral, President

CMR Financial Advisors | (808) 537-2912

 

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*S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
* Type 1 Assets = US styleboxes – lower volatility, Type 2 Assets = International Equities and Hard Assets – moderate volatility, Type 3 Assets = Sectors – higher volatility
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
*Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal
* Sources: All index- and returns-data from Norgate Data and Commodity Systems Incorporated and Wall Street Journal; news from Reuters, Barron’s, Wall St. Journal, Bloomberg.com, ft.com, guggenheimpartners.com, zerohedge.com, ritholtz.com, markit.com, financialpost.com, Eurostat, Statistics Canada, Yahoo! Finance, stocksandnews.com, marketwatch.com, visualcapitalist.com, wantchinatimes.com, BBC, 361capital.com, pensionpartners.com, cnbc.com, FactSet, Morningstar/Ibbotson Associates, Corporate Finance Institute, Tradingview, S&P Global, Carson Coaching, Capitalogix.
* Commentary from T Rowe Price Global markets weekly update — https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.
* Technical trading models are mathematically driven and based upon the historical data and trends of both domestic and foreign market trading activity. This includes various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models utilize mathematical algorithms to attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and also to identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, that new data is accurately incorporated, or that the software can accurately predict future market, industry and sector performance.