U.S. MARKETS
LONG TERM INDICATORS
The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in a Bull status at 67.61, up 0.37% from the prior week’s 67.36. It has signaled Bull since June 27, 2025.
The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Bond Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in BULL status at 59.04, down 1.62% from the prior week’s 60.01. It has signaled Bull since December 15, 2023.
SHORT TERM INDICATORS
GALACTIC SHIELD — Positive for Q1 2026: This indicator is based on the combination of U.S. and International Equities trend statuses at the start of each quarter.
STARFLUX— Positive: Starflux ended the week 7.34 (down 8.25% last week) This short-term indicator measures U.S. Equities. It measures the trend-strength of the Russell 3000 index.
STARPATH — Positive: This indicator measures the interplay on dual timeframes of our Type 1s + the Russell 3000 + our four most ‘pro-cyclical’ Type 3s, vs. Cash
U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW
THE VOLATILIY INDEX for 2026 (VIX)
VIX closed at 15.86 this week, a 9.5% increase vs last week’s close of 14.49.
U.S. MARKET NEWS
Inflation rate slows
Core consumer inflation cooled in December, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that the core CPI rose just 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year, the slowest annual pace since March 2021 and below expectations, while headline inflation increased 0.3% on the month and 2.7% year over year. Producer price growth, however, ticked higher, as the government shutdown-delayed November PPI showed a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.0% annual rise, up from October and driven largely by higher energy prices. Consumer spending remained resilient, with retail sales climbing 0.6% in November and beating forecasts, though growth in the control group used in GDP calculations slowed to 0.4%. Housing data also surprised to the upside, as new home sales exceeded estimates despite a modest monthly decline, existing home sales jumped 5.1% in December amid improving conditions, and falling mortgage rates—approaching 6% on a 30-year fixed loan—helped support demand alongside moderating home price growth.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS
Europe
European equities finished the week modestly higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index rising 0.77% in local currency terms, supported by resilient economic data and earnings, though performance among major markets was mixed as Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB posted modest gains, the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced 1.09%, and France’s CAC 40 fell 1.23%. Economic data showed signs of stabilization and recovery across the region, highlighted by Germany emerging from a two-year recession as GDP grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter and for full-year 2025, driven by higher household and government spending, even as exports declined and the trade surplus narrowed sharply amid higher U.S. tariffs, a stronger euro, and Chinese competition. The UK economy also returned to growth, with GDP rising 0.3% in November—beating expectations—supported by strength in services and manufacturing following the reopening of Jaguar Land Rover facilities. Meanwhile, eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% in November for a third consecutive monthly increase, led by capital goods, while investor sentiment improved in January to its strongest level since July 2025 on brighter economic expectations.
Japan
Japanese equities rallied strongly, with the Nikkei 225 Index climbing 3.84% and the broader TOPIX Index gaining 4.11% as markets hovered near record highs following reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to call a snap general election in early February to secure a majority for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Investors welcomed the prospect of greater political clarity and the potential for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, reviving the so-called “Takaichi trade” that has fueled gains in sectors tied to artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and defense. The yen was volatile after the election news, initially weakening sharply before recovering to around JPY 158 per U.S. dollar, aided in part by comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama signaling readiness to act against excessive currency moves. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose to 2.18% from 2.09% the prior week, reflecting concerns that expanded fiscal stimulus could further strain Japan’s public finances.
China
Mainland Chinese equities retreated after regulators tightened margin financing rules, with the CSI 300 Index falling 0.57% and the Shanghai Composite down 0.45%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.34%. Under the new regulations, investors must now provide margin equal to 100% of the value of securities purchased on credit, up from 80%, a move reflecting authorities’ growing concern over rapid market gains and elevated levels of stock-buying loans after the CSI 300 recently climbed to a four-year high. The pullback came despite a sharp rally in Chinese stocks over the past month, driven by artificial intelligence-related trades and optimism around domestic technology firms, even as the property downturn and deflationary pressures persist. On the economic front, China reported that exports jumped 6.6% in December, the fastest pace in three months, helping push the country’s trade surplus to a record USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, as strong demand from Southeast Asia and Europe more than offset tariff-related weakness in shipments to the U.S., though the surge risks heightening trade tensions with global partners.
HIGHLIGHTED STORY
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-silver-supply-demand-imbalance-2015-2025/
January 15, 2026
Key Insights:
Silver has staged another powerful rally at the beginning of 2026, pushing to fresh highs as market fundamentals tighten.
Futures prices have surged above $85, driven by export restrictions from China, rising demand from green technologies, and renewed interest in silver as a safe-haven asset.
This chart highlights how global silver supply and demand have diverged over the past decade.
While supply growth has remained relatively flat, demand has surged, creating a series of structural deficits that are reshaping the market.
The data for this visualization comes from the Silver Institute. Total silver supply includes mine production, recycling, net hedging supply, and net official sector sales. Total demand spans industrial use, photography, jewelry, silverware, physical investment, and net hedging demand.
Persistent Deficits Since 2021
After several years of modest surpluses, the silver market flipped into deficit in 2021. That year saw demand jump to 1,112 million ounces, while supply lagged behind at 1,023 million ounces.
The imbalance worsened dramatically in 2022, when demand surged to a record 1,306 million ounces. This resulted in the largest deficit on record, at 272 million ounces, marking a turning point for the market.
Green Energy Is Driving Demand
A major driver behind silver’s demand surge is its critical role in green technologies. Solar panels, electric vehicles, and power grid infrastructure all rely heavily on silver’s conductive properties.
In 2022, green-energy demand accelerated sharply, combining with a post-pandemic rebound in jewelry, bar, and coin purchases. Even as demand moderates slightly after 2023, it remains well above pre-2020 levels.
Prices Reflect Tight Market Conditions
Silver prices have tracked these supply-demand pressures closely. From an average of $15–$17 per ounce between 2015 and 2019, prices jumped to over $25 in 2021.
Despite some volatility, prices continued climbing as deficits persisted, reaching $28.30 in 2024. In 2025, silver surged rapidly, surpassing $80 per ounce as export controls, geopolitical risk, and investment demand collided with limited supply growth.
Best regards,
Cliff M. Robello, CFP®, ChFC Sheri Cabral, President
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