IN THE MARKETS
U.S. stock indexes finished the last full trading week of the year mixed, with the Russell 2000 Index posting the weakest performance, down 0.86%, followed by a 0.67% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the S&P MidCap 400 and S&P 500 were little changed and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.48%. Markets began the week broadly lower, extending the prior week’s technology-sector weakness amid ongoing concerns over valuations and spending in the artificial intelligence space, and sentiment was further pressured by mixed economic data, including November’s jobs report. By week’s end, however, equities rebounded as an encouraging inflation report and strong earnings from semiconductor maker Micron Technology helped improve investor confidence, particularly around AI-related themes..
U.S. MARKETS
LONG TERM INDICATORS
The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in a Bull status at 66.39, down 0.34% from the prior week’s 66.62. It has signaled Bull since June 27, 2025.
The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Bond Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in BULL status at 60.84, up 2.17% from the prior week’s 59.55. It has signaled Bull since December 15, 2023.
SHORT TERM INDICATORS
GALACTIC SHIELD — Positive for Q4 2025: This indicator is based on the combination of U.S. and International Equities trend statuses at the start of each quarter.
STARFLUX— Positive: Starflux ended the week at 7.20 (up 0.28% last week). This short-term indicator measures U.S. Equities. It measures the trend-strength of the Russell 3000 index.
STARPATH — Positive: This indicator measures the interplay on dual timeframes of our Type 1s + the Russell 3000 + our four most ‘pro-cyclical’ Type 3s, vs. Cash.
U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW
THE VOLATILIY INDEX for 2025 (VIX)
VIX closed at 14.91 this week, a 5.3% decrease vs last week’s close of 15.74.
U.S. MARKET NEWS
Job market weakens
U.S. economic data sent mixed signals during the week, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations of roughly 45,000 and rebounding from a revised October decline of 105,000 jobs that was largely driven by a loss of 162,000 federal government positions due to the shutdown, with November gains led by health care and construction; however, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in more than four years. Later in the week, inflation data were more encouraging, as the consumer price index showed prices rising 2.7% year over year in November, below expectations and down from September’s 3% increase, while core inflation slowed to 2.6%—its lowest level since March 2021—helped by easing shelter costs, which rose 3% year over year, the slowest pace since August 2021.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS
Europe
European equities advanced in local currency terms, with the STOXX Europe 600 Index rising 1.60% amid signs of steady economic growth and a more accommodative monetary policy backdrop, while major national indexes also posted gains, including Italy’s FTSE MIB up 2.86%, the UK’s FTSE 100 higher by 2.57%, France’s CAC 40 up 1.03%, and Germany’s DAX adding 0.42%. On the policy front, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% for a fourth straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde noting that policy remains “in a good place” but reiterating a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, alongside upgraded GDP growth forecasts and expectations for inflation to dip below target in 2026–27 before returning to 2.0% in 2028. In the UK, the Bank of England cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote, signaling a more dovish tilt as inflation cooled and the labor market weakened, while emphasizing that further easing would be gradual and increasingly finely balanced.
Japan
Japanese equities declined over the week, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 2.61% and the broader TOPIX Index down 1.17%, as technology shares weakened alongside their U.S. counterparts amid concerns over elevated valuations and aggressive spending in the artificial intelligence space. On the policy front, the Bank of Japan delivered a widely expected move, voting unanimously to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.50% to 0.75%—its highest level since 1995—citing greater confidence in its economic outlook, though it provided limited guidance on the timing of future hikes. The decision, which markets had largely priced in ahead of the December 18–19 meeting, pushed the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up to 2.01% from 1.95% the prior week.
China
Mainland Chinese equities ended the week mixed amid a series of economic indicators highlighting sluggish growth, with the CSI 300 Index slipping 0.28%, the Shanghai Composite edging up 0.03%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling 1.10%. Data showed retail sales rising just 1.3% year over year in November—the slowest pace since the pandemic—while fixed asset investment fell 2.6% over the first 11 months of the year, putting it on track for its first annual contraction since records began in 1998, and industrial output grew 4.8%, below expectations, underscoring continued reliance on exports as domestic demand remains weak. Despite ongoing efforts to stimulate consumption, recent policy signals suggest a restrained approach, as Chinese leaders indicated they would not significantly ramp up stimulus next year, instead emphasizing flexible use of monetary tools to maintain liquidity and a “necessary” level of fiscal support, which analysts view as reinforcing Beijing’s commitment to a manufacturing-led growth strategy while taking incremental steps to bolster consumption.
HIGHLIGHTED STORY
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/housing-affordability-by-income-level-usa/
December 17, 2025
Key Insights:
Americans face a lack of affordable homes, even as for-sale inventory climbed 20% since 2024.In the post-pandemic era, higher mortgage rates and a housing market boom have pushed many buyers out of the market. Today, households earning $75,000—a bracket often including professions like teachers, nurses, and trades workers—can only afford 21% of listings, down from 49% in March 2019. This graphic shows U.S. housing affordability by income level in 2025, based on data from the National Association of Realtors.
The State of Affordable Homes in 2025
For the analysis, affordability was determined using typical mortgage underwriting practices. Specifically, it used a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, with 30% of income for financing, taxes, and insurance. It also includes mortgage insurance for down payments under 20%.
As we can see, households earning $50,000 could afford 28% of listings in 2019, but now it has shrunk to just 9%. Households earning $50,000 represent a third of the U.S. population, with homes under around $170,000 in their price range. Similarly, the share of affordable homes for many other lower-income households has contracted by at least three-quarters.
Yet even higher income households have seen notable contractions. In 2019, a household earning $150,000 could afford 82% of new listings, but now it has fallen to 62%. Ultimately, about 480,000 fewer listings are accessible to this income tier in just six years, based on a maximum affordable price of $510,000.
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Cliff M. Robello, CFP®, ChFC Sheri Cabral, President
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