The Market Update – March 23, 2026

The Markets – March 23, 2026

U.S. MARKETS

LONG TERM INDICATORS

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in a Bull status at 50.05, down 3.55 in value from the prior week. It has signaled Bull since June 27, 2025.

The Sherman Portfolios DELTA-V Bond Indicator measuring the Bull/Bear cycle finished the week in BULL status at 63.17, down 3.76 in value from the prior week. It has signaled Bull since December 15, 2023.

SHORT TERM INDICATORS

GALACTIC SHIELD — Positive for Q1 2026: This indicator is based on the combination of U.S. and International Equities trend statuses at the start of each quarter.

STARFLUX— Positive: Starflux ended the week at 0.29 (down 1.87 in value last week). This short-term indicator measures U.S. Equities. It measures the trend-strength of the Russell 3000 index.

STARPATH — Positive: This indicator measures the interplay on dual timeframes of our Type 1s + the Russell 3000 + our four most ‘pro-cyclical’ Type 3s, vs. Cash

U.S. COMMODITIES / FUTURES OVERVIEW

THE VOLATILIY INDEX for 2026 (VIX)

VIX closed at 26.78 this week, a  1.5% decrease vs last week’s close of 27.19

U.S. MARKET NEWS

Mixed Economic data:

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% following its March meeting, marking the second consecutive pause, with an 11–1 vote that included one dissent in favor of a rate cut; updated projections still point to one rate cut this year, while expectations for inflation and economic growth were revised higher. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted increased economic uncertainty tied in part to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of an energy-driven inflation shock, concerns reinforced by a stronger-than-expected February producer price report showing a 0.7% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual rise. In housing data, builder sentiment improved slightly as the NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 38 in March, though affordability pressures persist and 37% of builders reported cutting prices, while other indicators showed mixed trends across the sector.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

INTERNATIONAL MARKET NEWS

Europe

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index fell 3.79% in local currency terms as investors reacted to escalating tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Qatar’s natural gas infrastructure, which drove sharp declines across major indexes such as

Germany’s DAX (-4.55%), Italy’s FTSE MIB (-3.33%), France’s CAC 40 (-3.11%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (-3.34%). Amid surging energy prices, the European Central Bank held interest rates steady but warned of increased near-term inflation risks, with President Christine Lagarde noting that higher oil and gas costs could have a “material impact” and emphasizing close monitoring of incoming data; the ECB also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%, while eurozone inflation reached 1.9% in February, and other central banks including the Swiss National Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank similarly kept rates unchanged. Meanwhile, the eurozone’s trade balance deteriorated, with a goods deficit of EUR 1.9 billion in January 2026, widening from EUR 1.4 billion a year earlier and reversing a surplus in December, largely due to weaker exports in machinery, vehicles, and chemicals.

Japan

Japan’s equity markets declined in a holiday-shortened week, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.83% and the broader TOPIX Index slipping 0.54%, as investor sentiment remained weighed down by ongoing Middle East tensions and continued volatility in oil prices despite government efforts to stabilize domestic supply through releases from strategic reserves. Against this uncertain backdrop, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, though the decision was not unanimous, with one member favoring a hike; the central bank stressed the need to monitor geopolitical developments, market volatility, and rising energy costs, noting that while inflation may temporarily dip below its 2% target, higher oil prices could push it upward again, and reaffirmed that further rate increases remain likely if its economic and inflation outlook holds.

China

Chinese equity markets declined as higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions compounded ongoing concerns about weak domestic demand and limited policy support, with the CSI 300 falling 2.19% and the Shanghai Composite dropping 3.38%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index proved relatively resilient with a modest 0.74% decline. Meanwhile, combined January–February economic data pointed to modest stabilization, with industrial production rising 6.3% year over year and retail sales increasing 2.8%, both surpassing expectations, while fixed asset investment grew 1.8%, supported by infrastructure spending that partially offset continued weakness in the property sector.

HIGHLIGHTED STORY

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-where-rent-is-rising-fastest-in-america-2020-2026/

March 20, 2026

Key Insights:

Rents across major U.S. cities have surged 36% since 2020, reflecting the ripple effects of pandemic migration, tight housing supply, and rising demand in Sun Belt metros. Using data from Zillow, this visualization compares rent inflation across 30 major U.S. cities between 2020 and January 2026, revealing where prices have climbed the fastest, and where growth has been more subdued. Some cities have seen rent increases of more than 50%, while others have experienced significantly slower growth despite already high housing costs.

Miami Saw the Biggest Rent Increase Since 2020

Since 2020, Miami has seen the fastest rent growth in the U.S., with prices soaring 53%. Back in 2020, rent in Miami cost $1,725, based on typical mid-market rents adjusted for the local housing mix.

By January 2026, it climbed to $2,645, now higher than rents in Seattle and Washington, DC. This coincided with a pandemic-era migration wave that added roughly 250,000 residents to the region. Tampa ranks second, with 50% rent inflation. While monthly rent remains more affordable than Miami, at $1,986, prices have shot up by $664. Even more strikingly, the Tampa Bay region grew by 497,000 residents, likely owing to its relative affordability.

Rent Inflation Varies Across California Cities

While Riverside and San Diego saw among the fastest-growing rents nationwide, San Francisco price growth was muted. Riverside rents boomed 48% as residents moved away from costlier California metros. Over the period, rents jumped $795, reaching $2,464 per month, marking the third-highest increase across cities analyzed. By contrast, San Francisco saw the slowest rent growth, rising just 13% since 2020. Amid growing affordability concerns, roughly 116,000 residents left the city, helping ease pressure on rental prices. Notably, Austin followed a similar pattern of slower rent growth, with prices rising 14% over the period. Unlike San Francisco, however, the key factor was record apartment construction that significantly increased supply and moderated rent increases.

Best regards,

Cliff M. Robello, CFP®, ChFC Sheri Cabral, President

CMR Financial Advisors | (808) 537-2912

 

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